The Central Bank of Uzbekistan expects economic growth to accelerate to 7–7.5% in 2027. In 2028–2029, GDP growth is projected at 6.5–7.5% annually. According to the regulator’s baseline scenario, inflation should slow to the target of 5% in the second half of 2027 and remain near this level thereafter. The corresponding draft of the main monetary policy guidelines for 2027–2029 was approved by the Board of the Central Bank on November 4.
One of the conditions for such a development will be maintaining the overall fiscal deficit at approximately 3% of GDP, balanced growth of lending and domestic demand, and the completion of regulated tariff reforms. Additional factors are expected to include a reduction in geopolitical tensions and oil prices. The regulator estimates core inflation in 2027 at 4–5%, relying on the easing of external price pressures and an increase in the domestic supply of goods and services.
At the same time, the Central Bank intends to maintain a tight monetary policy in 2026–2027. The real UZONIA rate is forecast to be around 6–7%. Easing of conditions is possible only after a sustained slowdown in inflation. Among the risks, the regulator highlighted the depreciation of currencies of major trading partners, rising oil and food prices, and an excessive acceleration of lending. These factors could lead to higher inflation than projected in the baseline scenario.